The Atlanta Falcons’ infamous Super Bowl collapse happened way back in 2017 but it took until 2022 for that crushing loss to finally rot the franchise from the inside out.
The Falcons are in Year 2 of their rebuild under head coach Arthur Smith, with a revamped roster that fails to feature Matt Ryan at quarterback for the first time since before the MCU got underway.
Atlanta was just good enough to win seven games over piss-poor opponents in 2021 but owned a -8.6 average margin per game (28th), tricking down into a 6-10-1 ATS mark. That sinks the team to a collective 34-48-1 against the spread (41.5%) since blowing that 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI.
With the final remnants of that cursed team purged, can the healing begin in the ATL? We get out the band-aids and holy water and see how the NFL odds stack up for the Atlanta Falcons 2022 betting preview.
Atlanta Falcons futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +30,000 |
| To win conference | +15,000 |
| To win division | +4,000 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 5 (Under -140) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +1,300 / No -1,000 |
Best futures bet: Under 5 wins (-140)
Some shops are dealing Under 5 (-140) while others are down to Under 4.5 (EVEN) on the Falcons win total.
Depending on where you bet, the lookahead lines have Atlanta as an underdog in 16 of 17 games with that lone outlier a pick’em versus Chicago in Week 11. Others have the Falcons -1 hosting the Bears. But beyond that matchup, it’s difficult to see this team getting past five wins.
Considering the craptacular roster, QB situation, a ninth-ranked strength of schedule and my QB SOS putting this defense up against the 12th hardest lineup of opposing quarterbacks, you may not need the extra padding for a push at Under 5 wins.
Atlanta Falcons betting overview
What will win bets: Soft middle of schedule
The Falcons jump right into the fire in 2022, opening against the rival Saints in Week 1 and playing against some quality competition in the first two months of action (Rams, Browns, Bucs, 49ers, Bengals). To toss gas on those flames, four of the first seven contests come on the road.
Things get much softer by Week 8. Save for a Week 9 matchup with the Chargers, Atlanta has “winnable” games versus Carolina (twice), Chicago, Washington and Pittsburgh before a bye in Week 14, and only travels twice in that span. That’s also a major downtick in QB quality compared to the bookends of the schedule.
There’s a very good chance ATL is 0-7 before hitting the gooey center of the schedule and those short lookahead lines set for this lighter stretch could balloon as the betting markets turn their backs on the Falcons. That’s when the vultures descend upon Atlanta and pick apart good line value with a very bad team.
What will lose bets: Quarterback play
Smith is dedicated to running the ball and needs a reliable rushing game to set up his play-action-heavy playbook, capturing his Music City magic with the Titans. However, Atlanta lacks the talent to pull this off. Cordarrelle Patterson is a fine weapon, but defenses will sell out on stopping the run and will challenge the Falcons to throw the football.
Enter veteran QB Marcus Mariota, who’s tossed a total of 30 forward passes over the past two years. He was also the guy Smith benched in place of Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee. The RPO doesn’t work without a “P” and should Mariota falter, you’re handing the keys of this complex offense over to rookie Desmond Ridder.
And if rival stop units don’t make the Falcons throw, Atlanta’s porous defense may give up more than enough points (29th in points allowed in 2021) to force Smith’s hand at passing. From there, opponents can bring the heat against one of the worst offensive lines in the league (173 sacks allowed since 2018).
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Atlanta Falcons game-by-game odds
As mentioned, lookahead lines can vary with the Falcons book-to-book, which is something we’ve seen with bottom-tier teams as oddsmakers don’t really know how to rate the worst of the worst. Based on those spreads, the Falcons are projected to win one to 1.5 games (splitting the difference on pick’ems), which falls well below the season win total of five (Under -140).
Season specials have Atlanta priced at +400 to have the fewest wins in 2022 and pegged at a tempting +2,000 to go winless, which has legs considering the Falcons face a much tougher slate (9th in SOS/12th in QB SOS) after running the third-weakest track in 2021.
We’ve pointed out the sea of red this franchise has left football bettors stranded in (T-31 worst bet in NFL since 2017) and all those plus-points in the chart below may not reverse those returns. The Falcons are catching more than a field goal in a dozen games this year but are 9-16-1 ATS as dogs of +3.5 or higher since 2017, including a 1-6-1 ATS count in 2021.
| 1 | vs. New Orleans | +5 | 42 |
| 2 | @ L.A. Rams | +13 | 49.5 |
| 3 | @ Seattle | +3 | 44 |
| 4 | vs. Cleveland | OTB | OTB |
| 5 | @ Tampa Bay | +11.5 | 51 |
| 6 | vs. San Francisco | +7 | 45 |
| 7 | @ Cincinnati | +9 | 47.5 |
| 8 | vs. Carolina | PK | 44 |
| 9 | vs. L.A. Chargers | +7 | 49 |
| 10 | @ Carolina | +3.5 | 44 |
| 11 | vs. Chicago | -1 | 46 |
| 12 | @ Washington | +5 | 45 |
| 13 | vs. Pittsburgh | +2.5 | 44.5 |
| 14 | BYE | ||
| 15 | @ New Orleans | +7 | 42 |
| 16 | @ Baltimore | +9.5 | 45 |
| 17 | vs. Arizona | +5.5 | 49 |
| 18 | vs. Tampa Bay | +6.5 | 46.5 |
Atlanta Falcons Pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
This is a rebuilding season and I won’t be surprised if Desmond Ridder makes multiple starts for the Falcons this year. Atlanta Under 2 division wins (available at a few shops) is a solid bet.
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